Attachment Age Smoothing#
import chainladder as cl
import pandas as pd
This simple example demonstrates how a Tail attachment_age
can be used to
smooth over development patterns within the triangle. Regardless of where
the attachment_age
is set, the patterns will always extrapolate one year
past the highest known lag of the Triangle
before applying a terminal tail
factor.
raa = cl.load_sample('raa')
results = pd.concat((
cl.TailCurve().fit(raa).ldf_.T.iloc[:, 0].rename('Unsmoothed'),
cl.TailCurve(attachment_age=12).fit(raa).ldf_.T.iloc[:, 0].rename('Curve Fit')
), axis=1)
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
plt.style.use('ggplot')
%config InlineBackend.figure_format = 'retina'
ax = results.plot(title='Exponential Smoothing of LDF');